Talking Sports: Prized pitchers now available: where will they land for 2015?

This offseason’s MLB free agent class is one of the deepest in recent memory. There are household names galore and the opportunity to change the current landscape of the league is greater than it has been in a while.

Several of the biggest names out there have already received qualifying offers from their 2014 clubs and now the chase is on.

Since we all know that pitching wins championships, here are my thoughts on the top three starting pitchers available and my prediction as to which uniform they’ll be wearing by Opening Day 2015.

I’ll preview some of the markets hottest hitters next Thursday.

Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers

Scherzer—likely the best free agent on the market—turned down a seven-year, $161 million extension offer from the Tigers late in the season. He believes he is worth more than that and he might actually be.

Take a look at these numbers: over the last five seasons in Detroit, “Mad Max” has made 161 starts—an average of over 32 per season—and has a record of 82-35 with a 3.54 ERA. In that span he has 1,081 punch outs to just 305 walks, which equates to a lights out 3.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He won the American League Cy Young last season with a 21-3 record.

Five years is more than an adequate sample size to evaluate this guy’s worth on the market. Yes, he’s 30 and GMs will generally cringe at the thought of giving a 30-year-old a mega deal. But any team who acquires him will reap the rewards of his talent very quickly.

I believe he’ll command a seven or eight year deal in the range of $175 million to $185 million—that’s Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander money to put things in perspective. Scherzer doesn’t have Felix’ stuff, but he has pinpoint control and late, sharp movement that can fool bats at the last second. He’s a durable flamethrower who can plant that 96 mph two-seamer almost anywhere its called. Durability plus talent always equals a ton of cash.

Thirty teams want Scherzer in their rotation, but only four or five could actually make the money work. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are always threats with their bottomless pockets. Detroit also has to worry about Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and they’ll only be able to keep one of three.

Prediction: Scherzer stays in Detroit. GM Dave Dombrowski will be smart and go all in to preserve the Tigers’ greatest strength—its rotation. Hunter is expendable and Martinez can be replaced by committee. Detroit loses infinitely more by letting go of Scherzer, especially if he ends up with another AL club.

Jon Lester – Oakland Athletics

He’s the second best player—position player or pitcher—on this winter’s market. Some view him as a cheaper alternative to Scherzer, but still a guy who’s more than capable of winning a lot of games. He has a more proven track record than Scherzer and has done it in the playoffs and in the World Series—his one major advantage over Detroit’s star.

Because of his cheaper price tag, Lester is more of a wild card as more teams will be in on his bidding. One thing is for certain: he will not be an Oakland Athletic in 2015. That club simply doesn’t have the payroll and is focused on keeping all-star third baseman Josh Donaldson around long term.

Lester is one of the few pinnacles of elite durability in the majors. He’s made 31 or more starts in every season since 2008. In six of those seven seasons, he’s thrown 200 or more innings. Lester is usually well under a hit-per-inning guy and he has swing and miss stuff from the left side, which is an added bonus. Like Scherzer, he won’t put too many hitters on base because of that A plus control.

He’s also 30 and should command around a seven-year deal, which is scary at first. But interested teams should remember that he’s a horse as a lefty and has an excellent postseason pedigree. Nine or 10 clubs could be in on him in hot pursuit.

Prediction: Lester lands with the Texas Rangers in the general area of $140 million. With the loss of Matt Harrison—who won 18 games in 2012—Texas needs another sturdy arm in its rotation after Yu Darvis. Rangers GM Jon Daniels has been saying the last couple of weeks that his club won’t be in on Lester because of ownership’s hesitation to increase payroll.

But keep two things in mind: one, Daniels has a history of being pretty sneaky with the media and hauling big fish in at the last minute. He knows this is a major need if the Rangers are to contend for the World Series in 2015. Two, all 30 major league clubs are getting massive revenue increases from a very lucrative television deal with Fox Sports, which kicks in this upcoming season. So the money should be there one way or another. Lester has a great attitude and is a guy you take a chance on without a second thought.

The Rangers have a couple of other holes to fill—or at least improve—but they go all in on a bona fide ace and turn to their deep farm system to tie the other loose ends. This signing could create some initial financial backlash.

But Texas’ front office is one of the most creative in the game. Maybe a subsequent jettison of big-money shortstop Elvis Andrus would be in order?

James Shields – Kansas City Royals

“Big Game James” as he’s so reverently referred to, is the third best hurler on the market. His biggest problem? He may have put a dent in that ‘big game’ reputation—unless, of course, your team’s definition of a big game is a regular season contest in late July to take first place in the division.

Shields has been one of baseball’s premier regular season pitchers over the last half decade. Like Lester, Shields is the hallmark of durability, having made 33 or more starts since 2008. The guy just doesn’t get hurt and outside of pure ability, durability is the most sought after attribute in today’s class of pitchers. Owners want assurances that their investments will give them maximum return and avoiding the bench is a great start towards that.

Shields has gone 58-39 in the last four regular seasons with a 3.17 ERA. That’s a very solid run and remember, he’s done it against AL pitching. He does have a tendency to gravitate to extremities—when he’s on he’s lights out but when he’s off, he gets shelled.

Still, the numbers speak for themselves—Shields is usually on his game and that changeup is still one of the dirtiest pitches in the game. He’s the oldest guy on this list so far—he’ll turn 33 in December—so he should be substantially cheaper than either Scherzer or Shields. His relative train wreck in this year’s postseason also hurts his value in the eyes of contending clubs. He should get around a three to four-year deal in the ballpark of $45 million to $60 million.

Prediction: Shields remains in Kansas City. The Royals just got their first taste of the playoffs, let alone the World Series and you can bet they’ll do what it takes to give themselves a shot to get back. That shot starts with resigning Shields, who was arguably the biggest reason they even made the postseason. GM Dayton Moore knows he can shed some payroll by letting guys like Norichika Aoki and Billy Butler go. That price tag is affordable and Shields is well worth those dollars.