Re-counting heads: Census data shows jump in Sidney's daytime population, though the exact amount remains in question

In Mark Twain's hierarchy of misinformation, statistics occupy the bottom rung, lagging behind lies and "damned lies."

It's no wonder America's most revered humorist cast doubt on the validity of numbers. Those who study such data can't even pin down Sidney's exact population.

The Census Bureau's head count puts it at 6,748. Yet survey-based research from the same organization bumps the figure above 8,000. Meanwhile, Sidney City Manager Gary Person considers both numbers low, estimating a population of up to 12,000.

Why the confusion?

"It depends on how you read the stats," Person pointed out.

The essential question is what comprises a city, those living within its bounds or those using its services on a day to day basis. On the one hand, Sidney counts more than 6,700 residents within city limits. Yet each weekday this figure grows, as workers commute from surrounding communities to Cabela's, Adams Industries, Sidney Regional Medical Center, WalMart and other employers located in town.

During business hours, Sidney experiences at least a 20 percent growth in population, at least according to Census Bureau estimates.

"That's high," observed David Drozd, research coordinator at the Nebraska State Data Center. "That's comparable to Omaha."

Incorporating commuting patterns into Census Bureau figures suggests that 1.4 jobs exist in Sidney for every resident of working age. Only Omaha and Scottsbluff rank higher. And the city retains 85 percent of its working age population, meaning few that few locals commute from Sidney. The number ranks favorably with Lincoln, Chadron and Grand Island.

By comparison, Scottsbluff retains 69 percent of its resident workforce. For Ogallala, the figure is 75 percent.

The Census Bureau study assumes that 1,346 commuters arrive each day, bumping the temporary population over the 8,000 mark. Person bases his 10,000 to 12,000 figure on the additional hourly work force not counted in full time equivalency surveys, commuting to positions in Sidney's retail and food service sector.

The city must consider everyone spending a part of each day in the community when planning for demands upon infrastructure, utilities and services--as well as the costs involved for taxpayers. Increases in sales and occupation taxes are designed to shift some of the burden to visitors.

"It's all good news, but they [Census Bureau statisticians] don't account for hotel rooms," Person said. "We're providing a lot of services."

The good news is clear, as the inflow of commuters creates a market for restaurants and retail stores, which in turn generates more employment opportunities and a further increase in local spending.

"It helps with the overall vitality," Drozd pointed out, adding that a number of small towns in Nebraska have not been able to support local businesses. The ripple when downtown retail and services falter effects schools and other facilities, as well.

Yet the data point to significant pressures on Sidney and its infrastructure. Work is underway on the corner of Illinois St. and 13th Ave., while Cabela's second downtown office project--expected to bring close to 130 people to the main drag each workday--nears completion.

Expansion and repaving projects slated for Toledo St., Fort Sidney Rd. and other stretches in 2013-14 are expected to cost $10 million alone. Current work on Illinois, combined with the Cabela's renovation, was projected in the $9 million range.

And uncertainty over the meaning of commuter data from the Census Bureau still lingers.

"One of the things we struggle with in Sidney is housing," said Glenna Phelps-Aurich, Executive Director of Cheyenne County's Chamber of Commerce. "That's one reason for the commutes--but it is being addressed."

Construction begins this summer on a 72-unit apartment complex. A housing development is in the planning stage. And Cabela's reportedly purchased 500 acres to support another new residential project.

Building permits in Sidney were valued at more than $10 million in 2012, the 15th instance over the last 16 years when permit valuations topped that mark. The county's valuation increased from $350 million back in 1987 to $1.1 billion a year ago.

"Sidney is a regional employer," Drozd observed. "All that"--the revenue from commuters and the need to expand--"filters down."