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Pro picks: Pats roll again

FOXBORO,Mass. (AP) — Bill Belichick insists the rematch of a December game with the Texans will be different.

Not too much different, of course, because he fully expects his Patriots to win the divisional-round playoff game and advance to the AFC title match.

As for another 42-14 outcome, New England’s coach is having none of it.

“The plays will match up differently and I’m sure there will be new plays that weren’t in that game,” Belichick said.

The AFC East champion Patriots (12-4) come off their playoff bye as 91⁄2-point favorites against the AFC South winners. Houston (13-4) beat Cincinnati 19-13 in the wild-card round, not looking particularly overwhelming.

It’s pretty simple what the Texans must do at the outset Sunday: stay close.

It won’t be as bad as 42-14, but ...

BEST BET: PATRIOTS, 41-14.

Elsewhere:

Green Bay (plus 3) at San Francisco

The Packers have no fear about going on the road in the postseason. A similar crew to this year’s group won three away games two years ago, then beat Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl.

And the NFC North champion Packers who the West-winning 49ers face Saturday night have gotten healthier as the playoffs approached. They have a decent running game to go with that deep receiving corps Aaron Rodgers throws to.

UPSET SPECIAL: PACKERS, 30-27

Baltimore (plus 91⁄2) at Denver

For the Ray Lewis Tribute Tour to keep rolling, the Ravens must beat Peyton Manning and the NFL’s hottest team, the AFC West champion Broncos.

In the Mile High City.

Too big a challenge.

BRONCOS, 27-20

Seattle (plus 3) at Atlanta

Seattle has become the fashionable choice, the outsider that could emulate the Giants of last season, the Packers of the previous year, and so on.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have been stamped by many as the shaky favorite because of an 0-3 postseason record under Mike Smith. There’s also the feeling that no team fears going into the Georgia Dome, and with the Seahawks having erased their road woes in the last month or so, they are a formidable foe.

Still, these Falcons are better than the previous three playoff editions, and they have the big, physical and versatile receivers to deal with Seattle’s big, physical and versatile secondary.

Like the other NFC game, this will be close.

FALCONS, 22-20

2012 RECORD:

Against spread: 2-2 (114-126-7). Straight up: 3-1 (162-93-1)

Best Bet: 8-8-2 against spread, 12-6 straight up.

Upset special: 11-7 against spread, 9-9 straight up.

 

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